States sign short-term Colorado River drought plan, but global warming looms over long-term solutions

HOOVER DAM — The Colorado River just got a boost that’s likely to prevent its depleted reservoirs from bottoming out, at least for the next several years. 

Representatives of seven Western states and the federal government signed a landmark deal on Monday laying out potential cuts in water deliveries through 2026 to reduce the risks of the river’s reservoirs hitting critically low levels. 

Yet even as they celebrated the deal’s completion on a terrace overlooking Hoover Dam and drought-stricken Lake Mead, state and federal water officials acknowledged that tougher negotiations lie ahead. Their task starting next year will be to work out new rules to re-balance the chronically overused river for years to come. 

Figuring out how to do that will be complicated because the Colorado River, which supplies water for vast farmlands and more than 40 million people, is managed under a nearly century-old system of allocations that draws out more than what flows in from rain and snow in an average year.

The river’s reservoirs have fallen since 2000 during one of the driest periods in centuries, and global warming is cranking up the pressures by contributing to the declines in the river’s flow. 

“Look at all we have accomplished by working together,” said federal Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman, who signed the agreements alongside the states' representatives. "All the states should be commended for finding a path forward."

She called the deal historic and said it adds an important new chapter to the rules that govern the river. 

"But our work is not done," Burman said. "We know we have even greater challenges ahead."

Federal and state officials began talking about the need for a drought deal in 2013, and the negotiations got underway in 2015. 

The set of agreements includes two separate but interrelated drought contingency plans: one for states in the river’s Upper Basin — Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico — and the other for the Lower Basin states — Arizona, Nevada and California.  

The drought plans are designed to prop up the levels of Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation’s largest reservoirs, between 2020 and 2026. Lake Powell is now 40% full, and Lake Mead sits 41% full. 

During the talks on the agreement last year, Lake Mead had appeared headed for a first-ever declaration of a shortage by the federal government. But this winter left the Rocky Mountains blanketed with heavy snow, unleashing a bounty of runoff that’s expected to avert a shortage for another year. 

“One good year is helpful,” Burman said. “But it doesn’t fix a 19-year drought and it doesn’t do anything to predict for us what’s going to happen next.”

The audience of water managers and government officials broke into applause after the signing and posed for photos with the Hoover Dam, its low water levels starkly outlined, in the background.

Missing from the celebration was the largest single user of the Colorado River, California’ Imperial Irrigation District, which is suing to challenge the deal. 

A new reality driven by global warming

Water managers and supporters of the deal have praised the Lower Basin’s Drought Contingency Plan, or DCP, as “bridge solution” to get the region through the next several years until 2026 while reducing the risks of a crash. But they also stress that it’s merely a stopgap measure — a temporary fix on top of the existing 2007 guidelines for managing shortages — and that it will provide a short window of time to start to plan bigger steps.  

“We’re in a moment where we’re going to take a pause and recognize the progress we’ve made. But I think it needs to be a short pause so that we get working on the renegotiation of the guidelines,” said Kevin Moran, who leads the Environmental Defense Fund’s Colorado River program. “I think it’s in everyone’s interest that we move those conversations as quickly as possible forward.”

One big reason, he said, is global warming. 

“We worked together and did a good job of making it very unlikely that the worst will happen,” Moran said. “That is major progress. And now I think we have to say, ‘How do we operate longer term in the new water reality driven, supercharged, by climate change?’ How do we do that? It’s hard work.”

Planet-warming pollution and rising global temperatures have increasingly affected the river over the past few decades. 

Scientific research has found that about half the trend of decreasing runoff from 2000-2014 in the Upper Colorado River Basin was the result of unprecedented warming. The higher temperatures have reduced the flow of streams and increased the amount of water that evaporates off the landscape.

For decades, the river has been so heavily used that it seldom reaches the sea. Its delta in Mexico has shriveled, leaving only small wetlands in a dusty stretch of desert.  

When water officials finished negotiating the last set of rules for dealing with a potential shortage in 2007, they had expected those rules to work through 2026. But only halfway through that period, they realized the measures weren’t nearly strong enough. And that forced them to negotiate the new set of drought agreements to finish off the period.

The legal framework that allocates the river was established during much wetter times nearly a century ago, starting with the 1922 Colorado River Compact. 

Adapting that system to a hotter planet, Moran said, will require posing tougher questions and looking at ways of boosting conservation and managing demand for water across the Colorado River Basin. 

“The modeling looking forward would say we probably ought to be planning for somewhere between 15 and 35% additional reduction in flows driven by climate change,” Moran said. He said climate models present an outlook that is “very dire” and demands action. 

Burman noted that the Colorado River is “the single most important water resource” in the American Southwest and northwestern Mexico, supplying a growing population and irrigating nearly 5.5 million acres of farmland.   

She motioned to Lake Mead behind her, where the declining water levels have left a lighter “bathtub ring” on the rocky sides of the reservoir. Burman said the “real possibility of a crisis on the river” prompted the region to come together on the drought deal, and that the Bureau of Reclamation is working with experts who study the latest data and climate models to assess future scenarios. 

“We’ve all worked closely together,” Burman said, “to make sure we’re using absolutely the best information possible on climate change and on future projections for the river.” 

California district could upend deal

Months of difficult negotiations led up to the deal. When it was finished, representatives of the seven states met in Phoenix on March 19 and signed a letter to Congress calling for legislation to authorize the agreements.

Congress passed the legislation last month and President Trump signed it. 

By that time, California’s Imperial Irrigation District had decided not to participate in the deal.

The agricultural irrigation district, which has the legal right to the largest share of Colorado River water, is suing to challenge the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan.

The district balked at signing the deal until $200 million in federal funds is allocated to address the worsening environmental crisis at the Salton Sea, which is shrinking and exposing dry lakebed that sends dust blowing into surrounding communities.

IID filed its lawsuit last month against the Los Angeles-based Metropolitan Water District and other Southern California water agencies. The district alleged violations of the California Environmental Quality Act and asked the court to suspend the plan until an environmental analysis has been carried out.

If Imperial is successful in the court challenge, it could prevent Metropolitan from contributing its share of water, which could, in turn, lead to the collapse of the three-state agreement. 

More:IID sues to halt Colorado River drought plan, says officials ignored Salton Sea

Imperial still could choose to join the agreement later on.

Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District, said his agency is having discussions with IID officials “to try and patch this over and bring them back in.”
 
“We are trying to turn this into a cooperative opportunity,” Kightlinger said. “We’re hopeful that that will work out.”

For the upcoming round of negotiations to succeed, IID’s participation will be crucial, said Dave Roberts of Salt River Project, which manages water from the Salt and Verde rivers in Arizona. 

“I think it’s going to be much more difficult,” Roberts said. “Because IID has a different view of the world than a lot of others, and they’re a big part of the solution because they’re such a huge water entity.”

A shortage is unlikely next year

Cynthia Campbell, a water adviser for Phoenix, said the challenges that lie ahead for negotiators are sobering. 

“They know that they have a daunting task ahead of them, beginning in 2020, to try to come up with new operating rules that are going to keep us sustainable further into the 21st century,” Campbell said. “When they come back, Arizona is certainly going to be on the business end of cuts.”

There’s no way around that, she said, because the state holds the junior-most position in the water priority system. Under the framework that emerges from the next round of negotiations, she said, the state will probably face bigger reductions during a shortage than under the newly signed drought plan. 

The latest projections by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show that in 2020 it’s unlikely a shortage will be declared at Lake Mead. The reservoir’s level now stands at 1,088 feet above sea level, about 13 feet higher than the threshold that would trigger a shortage declaration.

Even so, Arizona and Nevada may face water cutbacks starting next year under the drought plan. If federal officials determine in August that Lake Mead is likely to be below 1,090 feet at the start of next year, water deliveries to Arizona would be cut about 6.9%, and deliveries to Nevada would be cut 2.7%. 

Larger cutbacks would occur if Lake Mead is projected to be below 1,075 feet at the start of a future year. And California would also contribute by taking cuts sooner than it would be required to under the existing rules when the reservoir reaches 1,045 feet.

Now that California, Arizona and Nevada have signed their deal, Mexico has pledged under a separate agreement to start contributing to help prop up Lake Mead by temporarily leaving more water in the reservoir. 

Pinal farmers seek more funding

Even with the drought deal signed, some in Arizona say the state’s plan still needs more funding to be complete. 

Arizona gets nearly 40% of its water from the Colorado River. The state's plan for divvying up the water cutbacks under the Drought Contingency Plan involves deliveries of “mitigation” water to help lessen the blow for some farmers and other entities, as well as compensation payments for those that contribute water.

Those payments will be covered with more than $100 million from the state and the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, which manages the Central Arizona Project Canal. Much of the money will go toward paying for water from the Colorado River Indian Tribes and the Gila River Indian Community.

Arizona’s plan also relies on promoting more pumping of groundwater. Farmers in Pinal County, who face the biggest water cutbacks, are in line to get at least $9 million that was appropriated by the Legislature for irrigation districts to drill new wells and pay for other infrastructure as they turn to using more groundwater. 

The Pinal farmers, who grow crops including cotton, alfalfa and wheat, have been pressing the state Legislature to provide an additional $20 million. They say they’re trying to get a federal grant but the process will take some time, and in the meantime, they’re hoping to get started with the work of drilling more wells.  

“We need to make sure those funds are available to get the infrastructure built, and that’s part of DCP,” said Rep. David Cook, R-Globe, who has been campaigning for the funding in the Legislature. 

Cook said he’s confident that leaders in the Legislature will “fulfill our promises” to enable the full amount of groundwater pumping called for under the state’s plan. 

If the growers secure the additional $20 million, it would allow them to pump the full amount of groundwater called for under Arizona’s piece of the DCP: an additional 70,000 acre-feet per year, enough to cover more than 100 square miles in water a foot deep.

But even if they’re able to pump all that groundwater, it still won’t nearly make up for the Colorado River water they’re losing. The growers say they expect they’ll have to leave 35-40% of their lands dry and fallow in the first three years of a shortage. 

Paul Orme, a lawyer who represents four large agricultural irrigation districts, said the Arizona DCP promised that groundwater infrastructure would be in place by 2023 to pump the full allotted amount. But he said the districts were never supposed to end up paying much of the bill for those wells, pumps and other infrastructure. 

And if there isn’t enough money to make that additional groundwater available to growers, Orme said, “the DCP has failed us.”

Whether those funds are approved will become clear in the coming days as the Legislature finishes the budget. 

Critics: Arizona plan is not sustainable

Arizona water officials have called the state’s internal plan a landmark consensus agreement that effectively “shares the pain” and will address the water shortfall for the next several years. 

But Arizona’s plan has also drawn criticism. 

Some experts and environmentalists are concerned about the plan’s promotion of more groundwater pumping in parts of the state. They say using state money to drill more wells in Pinal County will only lead to declining aquifers. They also argue the state missed an opportunity to do more to encourage conservation. 

“It is positive that the Colorado River basin states are looking at cutting back on river water use, but it is unfortunate that our state has chosen to augment the river water with more groundwater pumping,” said Sandy Bahr, director of the Sierra Club’s Grand Canyon Chapter. “Sadly, the Arizona plan is not sustainable and is designed to keep Arizona doing more of the same — unsustainable and thirsty agriculture and more and more sprawl development.”

She said looking past 2026, all the states should consider the river’s long-term water deficit, the effects of climate change, and how to do more for conservation while considering the health of the river. 

“It is way past time for a Colorado River sustainability plan that centers on a healthy river that flows all the way to the sea and that provides for people, plants, and animals along the way,” Bahr said. “There is not time for patting ourselves on the back. We need to do more, now.”

In the meantime, even as the drought has eased across the West with the wet winter, concerns remain that the 19-year run of mostly dry years could continue. Earlier this month, a group of experts in a state advisory group recommended to Gov. Doug Ducey that a declaration of drought in Arizona should remain in effect. 

Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, called the Drought Contingency Plan “a huge incremental step forward.”

“It sets us up to have good conversations about what we need to do to deal with the projections of our drier future, climate change forcing reductions in flow, etcetera,” Buschatzke said. Discussions on the next round of plans should start soon in Arizona, he said, because “keeping the momentum going is really important.”

Reach reporter Ian James at ian.james@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8246. Follow him on Twitter: @ByIanJames

Support local journalism: Subscribe to azcentral.com today. 

Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust. Follow The Republic environmental reporting team at environment.azcentral.com and at OurGrandAZ on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.