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A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 798–800 (2019)Cite this article

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Future emissions scenarios for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report should explore the carbon budget space in a systematic manner, which would be robust to the updates of latest climate science, so that policy implications can be adequately assessed.

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Fig. 1: Distribution of cumulative carbon emissions in IAM scenarios.
Fig. 2: Carbon price and cumulative CO2 emissions.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge IIASA for hosting and maintaining the IPCC SR1.5 Scenario Database at https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/. S.F. is supported by JSPS KAKENHI grant no. 19H02273 and by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1908) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. K.R. and V.K. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Shinichiro Fujimori

  2. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan

    Shinichiro Fujimori

  3. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Shinichiro Fujimori, Joeri Rogelj, Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi

  4. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College, London, UK

    Joeri Rogelj

  5. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Joeri Rogelj

  6. Industrial Ecology Programme and Energy Transitions Initiative, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway

    Volker Krey

  7. Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria

    Keywan Riahi

Authors
  1. Shinichiro Fujimori
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  2. Joeri Rogelj
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  3. Volker Krey
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  4. Keywan Riahi
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the development of the presented ideas. S.F. and J.R. led the writing of the paper. S.F. produced the figures. All authors contributing to the framing and finalization of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Shinichiro Fujimori.

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Fujimori, S., Rogelj, J., Krey, V. et al. A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 798–800 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0611-9

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