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Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow

Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 796–800 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming1,2. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations3, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology4 as input data for a detailed land surface model5, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25% in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.

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Figure 1: Modelled river flow and solar dimming evaluation.
Figure 2: Regional averages of modelled twentieth century runoff changes.
Figure 3: Attributed river flow changes and corresponding scaling factors.
Figure 4: Annual mean river flow for the Danube and Wisla.

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Acknowledgements

N.G., G.P.W. and N.B. acknowledge support by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). J-J. Morcrette, of ECWMF, is also acknowledged for his help with the ERA-40 aerosol climatology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Maclean Building Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK,

    N. Gedney & G. P. Weedon

  2. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK

    C. Huntingford

  3. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK

    N. Bellouin

  4. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL/CNRS, 75005 Paris, France

    O. Boucher

  5. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK

    P. M. Cox

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  1. N. Gedney
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Contributions

N.G. designed and conducted the research; N.G. and C.H. performed and interpreted the detection and attribution analysis; G.P.W. contributed the WATCH forcing data and advised on statistical techniques; N.B. and O.B. contributed and interpreted the aerosol forcing data set; P.M.C. advised on the design of the research and analysis. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript.

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Correspondence to N. Gedney.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Gedney, N., Huntingford, C., Weedon, G. et al. Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow. Nature Geosci 7, 796–800 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2263

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