Switzerland

Last update: 1 June 2021

Economy wide

After a referendum resulting in a rejection of Switzerland’s updated CO₂ Act, the domestic component of Switzerland’s 2030 emissions target equates to an emissions level of 37.7 MtCO₂e in 2030, which is a reduction of 30% below 1990 levels – well short of the 63% reduction required for a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Switzerland's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Current policy

Switzerland is not projected to meet the domestic component of its 2030 target under current policies, with projected emissions reduction of 23% below 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF).

Fair share

Emissions reductions targeted abroad under the international component of Switzerland’s 2030 target (20% below 1990 levels) are not considered by this analysis, which focuses only on domestic emissions reductions.

Net zero GHG

Switzerland has set the goal to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Excluding the contribution of LULUCF sinks , the country should already have negative emissions by 2050 of around –11 MtCO₂e/yr for some scenarios from BECCS, thus having reached net zero GHG prior to that date.¹^,²

Remaining emissions

Other pathways show that remaining emissions should not be higher than 4-6 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 to be aligned with Paris Agreement compatible pathways. Switzerland would then need to balance its remaining emissions with the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches, either by increasing its land sink (around –1 MtCO₂e/yr in 2018) or by developing technological options.

Sectors

Power

Switzerland has little fossil fuel generation in its power sector, with natural gas making up just 1.3% of total generation in 2017 and no coal generation, while hydro (58%) and nuclear (36%) made up the majority of total generation.
Switzerland’s emissions trading scheme now covers its power sector, which may help to phase out its the remaining gas generation, alongside feed-in tariffs for renewables, subsidies for solar PV and a target to more than triple non-hydro renewable generation by 2035.
All remaining fossil fuel generation in Switzerland should be phased out by 2025.

Buildings

Despite outpacing the overall reduction in Swiss GHG emissions, buildings emissions failed to reach the 2020 target of a 40% reduction below 1990 levels.
The proposed 2030 target and ban on fossil fuel heating has been removed from the latest iteration of the CO₂ Act, making it less likely the Swiss building sector will achieve a 1.5°C compatible emissions reduction of at least 55% below 1990 levels.

Transport

Strong EV sales in 2021, reaching 22% of total sales led Switzerland to already surpass its 2022 target of a 15% share.
Achieving 100% EV sales by 2035 and a 55% reduction in total transport emissions below 2019 levels by 2030 would place the Swiss transport sector on a 1.5°C aligned pathway.

Industry

Switzerland’s main tool for targeting industry emissions is its CO₂ Act, which includes its emissions trading scheme, now linked to the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS).
To align with 1.5°C pathways, Swiss direct industry emissions would need to fall by more than a third below 2019 levels by 2030, and the sector should be completely decarbonised between 2040 and 2050.

Some pathways include sinks based on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩