Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • News Feature
  • Published:

The power of prediction markets

Scientists are beginning to understand why these ‘mini Wall Streets’ work so well at forecasting election results — and how they sometimes fail.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Buy this article

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

References

  1. Open Science Collaboration Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 7, 657–660 (2012).

  2. Open Science Collaboration Science 349, aac4716 (2015).

  3. Dreber, A. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 15343–15347 (2015).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D. & Rietz, T. A. Int. J. Forecast. 24, 285–300 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Treynor, J. L. Financ. Anal. J. 43, 50–53 (1987).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Almenberg, J., Kittlitz, K. & Pfeiffer, T. PLoS ONE 4, e8500 (2009).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. Rosenbloom, E. S. & Notz, W. Electron. Mark. 16, 63–69 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Servan-Schreiber, E., Wolfers, J., Pennock, D. M. & Galebach, B. Electron. Mark. 14, 243–251 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Camerer, C. F. et al. Science 351, 1433–1436 (2016).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Related links

Related links

Related links in Nature Research

Psychologists' betting market hints at most reliable research findings 2015-Nov-09

Over half of psychology studies fail reproducibility test 2015-Aug-27

Counting Google searches predicts market movements 2013-Apr-26

Replication studies: Bad copy 2012-May-16

Related external links

The Reproducibility Project

The Science Prediction Market Project

The Iowa Electronic Markets

Metaculus

SciCast

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mann, A. The power of prediction markets. Nature 538, 308–310 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/538308a

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/538308a

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing